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Mike L

Just in Time



I’ve briefly written about our hyper-connected world in posts before. I’ve referenced globalization and the supply chain as they relate to prepping. Much of the technology we use and the food we eat isn’t produced or grown locally, or even in the US for that matter. This is important because the supply chain is vulnerable to disruptions in many ways and at many points, wreaking havoc on our daily lives. In this post, I’m going to discuss these disruptions and identify steps you can take to keep yourself well-stocked and ready. As always, I’m going to remind you that you can’t prepare for every eventuality.  


A few quick facts. The supply chain isn’t new. The modern supply chain can be traced back to the early 1900s. Before that, raw materials and goods were moved locally. The introduction of the railroad allowed raw materials and goods to be transported greater distances. As you might imagine, improvements and innovations in warehousing, inventory management, physical distribution and advances in computer processing and technology greatly increased the scope, scale and efficiency of the supply chain. Globalization was facilitated by international trade agreements, treaties, and the all-consuming pursuit of the dollar, euro and yuan. Voila; a hyper-connected world in which climate change and a host of other factors impede our ability to buy the things we want and need.


At the time of this writing, the two major Canadian freight railways, Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City, and the Teamsters labor union, are deep in contract negotiations. They’ve been in talks for roughly a year and still have not reached an agreement. There was a recent lockout which has since been lifted. A full blown and lengthy strike would introduce significant disruptions for Canadian and American manufacturers, retailers, and consumers. Again, if there’s no way to move raw materials and goods from point A to point B, economies begin to slow down. Businesses stop hiring and investing in infrastructure. The availability of goods is reduced, and prices increase.


There’s also the specter of criminal activity such as acts of terrorism and sabotage, as well as organized theft. Vulnerabilities in the system are often easy to exploit by a dedicated actor or actors. Lost profits are passed on to consumers in the form of increased prices. Businesses also raise prices because they can.      


Let’s look at how this works. Take vanilla, for instance. It’s one of my favorite spices, but how does it end up in my kitchen? My favorite spice comes from one of my favorite plants, orchids. Over half of the world’s vanilla comes from Madagascar, an island nation on the southeast coast of Africa. I’ve said that vanilla comes from a plant, right? Commercially grown vanilla beans are cultivated from orchids, which must be pollinated by hand during a very small window. Each flower produces a single bean. Roughly, five-seven pounds of green beans is needed to yield one pound of processed vanilla. Vanillin, a chemical compound derived from wood pulp is far less expensive.


Plants are highly vulnerable to temperature changes- heat and cold- as well as hurricanes, cyclones as they’re called in the western Pacific Ocean. Well over half of Madagascar’s population is impoverished and theft of the unharvested vanilla plants is common.


Small farmers sell the harvested green beans to middlemen who resell the beans to curing facilities or, they cure them themselves. But the vanilla plant is delicate and finicky. The beans start to ferment the moment they’re harvested. Harvesting the beans too early results in poor quality vanilla. The middlemen earn more money than the small farmers. In the absence of set prices, the farmers make very little money on the raw product itself. If prices remain low, farmers may decide to destroy existing crops to drive up prices. Basic economics suggests that limiting supply can increase prices.


So far, I’ve identified a handful of dynamics that impact production, supply, and price. Keep in mind that the final product hasn’t left the country yet. You’re likely asking how does any of this impact American consumers? It should come as no surprise that the US is the world’s largest importer of vanilla. Again, as you might imagine, containers of vanilla beans are placed on cargo ships bound for the US.


A maze of laws and regulations are in place to protect the American public and the American agricultural establishment from foreign pests and diseases. Cargo ports and terminals are multi-modal, they intersect with rail and truck for transport across the region. Ports are massive and complex operations, employing tens of thousands of people in a range of jobs. Advanced technology is utilized to identify and detect harmful substances, illegal drugs and to deter criminal conduct. East Coast and Gulf Coast ports are vulnerable to hurricanes while their West Coast counterparts must contend with earthquakes.


Increasingly, extreme heat and cold are a thing, too. Labor strikes, pandemics, rising fuel costs, manpower shortages, technological glitches and other factors influence the price we pay for the world’s second most expensive spice.


Whether you shop at a discount grocer, a small, high-end purveyor of exotic treats or a national chain, the price you pay reflects the manufacturer’s and retailer’s costs of getting the item to market. In this instance, it’s getting vanilla from an impoverished island-nation on the other side of Africa to markets in the US.    


Now we come to the point of all of this. As preppers, what do you do? My long-term pantry is as much a hedge against uncertain times as it is the basis of my long-term stability and security. I have extras of certain items and some things I’m prepared to live without.


Know What You Need

As always, I advise you to start with a thorough needs analysis. Randomly buying whatever you see in stores or online is the surest way to waste money and not have what you need. Buying the foods your family eats as well as the basic staples is the only way to go. How many rolls of toilet paper do you use in a week? Do you drink a six-pack a day or do you roll your own cigarettes? Factor these into your preps, too. Does anyone in the household have special dietary considerations? A solid needs analysis and preparation in advance gives you time to address these concerns.


The Value of Money

Money is only of value if there’s is something to spend it on. During the pandemic lockdown it was reported that across the country, stores sold out of cleaning supplies and paper products.  We all aspire to have money, especially because we need food, housing, clothing and so on. Stock up on essentials during sales and clearance events. Watch prices on the bigger ticket items you need or are considering such as a solar generator or a second freezer. Being aware of consumer trends and forecasts helps us all make better decisions. Better decisions allow us to be better prepared.


Buying Extra vs. Hoarding vs. Stockpiling

One of my top tips is that you train yourself to put at least two items in your long-term pantry every time you make a trip to the grocery store, or any store for that matter. Another tip is that you buy an extra of certain items such as flour, cases of water and toilet paper. I’m not suggesting that you drive to every store in the area buying up all the hand sanitizer. That’s completely unnecessary, greedy and places others at risk. Everyone has a different situation based on finances, education, culture, religion and so on. Do not get caught up in the judgments of others, focus on your own preps and having what you need when you need it.


Cooperate and Collaborate

I regularly talk about the benefits of building a community. The value of a cohesive, well-organized and prepared community can’t be overstated. Of course, the best communities start with families, but don’t hesitate to build communities with neighbors, fellow churchgoers and others with similar interests. One of the many benefits is that costs can be split among the group for things like dehydrated meal kits, solar generators and bunkers! Additionally, there’s the possibility that you can trade and barter with other members for the things you need or want.


Accept Substitutes

We’ve discussed how supply chain issues impact both price and availability of life’s little luxuries as well as the essential products and technology we use daily. I refuse to buy imitation vanilla, but there’s nothing wrong with doing so. Imitation vanilla spice is perfectly viable and not only is it less expensive to produce, thus less expensive to buy, it’s not as harmful to the environment! As a practice, identify alternatives to the items you enjoy but are unable to find or buy.  


If you’ve not already done so, read the post How I Got Ready. and as always, share your thoughts with me in the comments below.

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