Key Terms

Hazard Analysis

The first step to becoming better prepared is to identify the events most likely to occur in your area. Hazards can be natural or man-made. Severe weather in the form of a hurricane or tornado are natural hazards while train derailments and car-jackings are examples of man-made hazards.

Next, you need to know the likelihood of a hazard occurring in your area. Of course, anything is possible but, is it probable? Florida isn’t a known earthquake hotspot, but hurricanes, thunderstorms and floods top the list of events to be prepared for. Everything you need to know about the Great Texas Freeze in February of 2021 is in the name of the event. Hot and sunny southern states are no longer immune to catastrophic winter storms.

With this in mind, it's reasonable to prepare for extreme hot and cold events in Southern states and Western states. In addition to earthquakes, West Coast residents should be aware of the potential for tsunami, wildfires, drought and heat waves and extreme cold weather events. Residents in California, Washington state and Oregon are alert to the danger of landslides and volcanic activity. The recurrence intervals of significant magnitude earthquakes, tsunami- generally triggered by large, powerful earthquakes- operates on timescales that exceed human lifespans, but the danger is nonetheless real.

Recent events are showing that Tornado Alley is moving north and east, into densely populated areas. There's evidence to demonstrate that earthquakes are a genuine, though, not highly likely risk in the Midwest and Northeast. Large scale disasters are well-publicized and there's no shortage of coverage of them. Use this information to help you in preparing you hazard analysis.

Needs Analysis

Identify everything you need daily for your life. Food, water and shelter come to mind but think in terms of the quantity of food based upon the number of people in the household, medications and so on. Cash in small denominations, canes, walkers, eyeglasses, comfort items, service animals, electricity, flushing toilets, the whole nine. Everything you touch on a daily basis is included into your needs analysis.

You also want to account for everyone in the household. Emphasis should be placed on young children, the elderly, those with medical conditions as well as anyone who lives with physical and cognitive impairments. Their needs must be accounted for in your emergency plan and this is identified and addressed in a thorough needs analysis.

Dietary needs based upon religious, medical necessity, personal preference and cultural considerations are identified and planned for at this stage. For example, a Vegan, Pescatarian or person with tree nut allergies would identify their specific dietary needs and plan accordingly.

Pets must also be accounted for in your needs analysis. Even if you feed human food to your animal, this needs to be factored into the overall quantities of food you need to have on hand. Medication, transport and control accessories such as crates and leashes, as well as comfort items should be identified and accounted for.

SHTF: Prepper-speak for Shit Hits the Fan. This term is used to refer to an event or time when normal society breaks down and everyone must fend for themselves. Temporally speaking, this is the moment preppers seek to be ready for.

Bags: Go Bag/Bug Out Bag/ INCH Bag

A bag you always keep ready in case of an emergency or disaster. Food, water, medication, important documents, flashlights, batteries & phone/laptop chargers, clothes are all examples of the contents of go bags. Go Bags are also known as Bug Out Bags. INCH, I'm Never Coming Home is another name for go bags.

Preparedness Cycle

Plan

Make an individual or family plan.

Organize & Equip

Get people and gear organized- go bags, etc.

Train

Walk family through what to do in the face of a disaster.

Exercise

Conduct an actual drill to test readiness.

Evaluate & Improve

Review what worked and what didn't work. Update plan as necessary.

Bug Out

Bug Out and Bugging Out refer to quickly leaving your home or the immediate area for a more remote or, secure location. Bugging out is one of the most popular themes in the prepper universe but it's actually the option of last resort.

Bugging Out is far more complicated than jumping into the car and heading for the hills. Supplies, mode of travel, safety and security as well as many other significant logistical considerations must be addressed first.

Black Swan Event

Black Swan events are events that are highly improbable and have far reaching consequences. Black swan events are generally viewed as being predictable after the fact For example, the 2008 financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic are considered black swan events.

TEOTWAWKI

The End of The World as We Know It. This term is used to describe an event that irreparably changes life as we know it and fundamentally destroys a society or country. Wars, acts of terrorism, man-made and natural disasters all have this potential. Generally speaking, anticipatory events such as sea level rise, an asteroid impact or CME, coronal mass ejection are actual TEOTWAWKI events.

Pop culture hypes events such as civil war, alien invasion, artificial intelligence overthrowing its human creators, secret societies orchestrating events from behind the scenes and global pandemics. Global pandemics and civil wars are well-documented and legitimate concerns, but again, the ability to effectively prepare for such is limited. It's important to understand what can and cannot be prepared for. The pop culture definition and hype makes for good entertainment but its value ends there.

TEOTWAWKI events are noteworthy in that they're more complex than any one person can prepare for. Even national governments struggle to make adequate plans in the face of such events. Equally, financial crises such as the 1998 - 2002 Argentine debt fallout and the recent Venezuelan economic collapse have the potential to reorder society on a fundamental level.

Gray Man

Gray Man is a concept that describes a person who blends into their surroundings and doesn't stand out from those around them. In the gray man mythos, they're well prepared to handle an emergency and do so most effectively alone, with nothing more than grit and encyclopedic knowledge. The Gray Man is another popular trope that Hollywood pushes in movies and TV shows and many preppers themselves perpetuate some of the same myths.

Long-term Pantry/ LTP and Short-term Pantry/ STP

This is the pantry you're stocking to get you through a long-term crisis. You can also use your LTP to resupply your short-term pantry. Your STP is used to resupply the working pantry in your kitchen. Typically, STPs contain the household appliances, assorted gadgets and the foods that you eat daily and those with a shelf life of six months to a year, such as mayonnaise; potato chips; cookies and crackers; nuts; cooking oils and so on.

Activities of Daily Living/ ADL

The activities of daily living are all related to personal care and include bathing or showering; dressing; eating; using the bathroom; getting in/out of bed or a chair. Aside from the elderly, those with sensory, physical and cognitive impairments may need assistance with ADL. The activities of daily living requires the use of fine motor skills as well as cognitive skills. For example, getting a glass of water requires the ability to retrieve the glass from the cabinet as well as filling it with water. Filling the glass without overflowing or dropping it, then handing it to another is an activity many lose the ability to perform. Again, it's common for some elderly people to hide their diminished capacity in this regard.

Scene Size-up

In the world of EMS, emergency medical services, EMTs and Paramedics perform a quick scene size up. Before or as they're exiting the ambulance, they're looking for obvious threats and identifying the number of patients and resources needed. I'm adapting the phrase for the purposes of prepping to mean you're making a quick assessment of your situation in a particular location.