Out of Town

In the prepping space, there’s no shortage of opinions on how to build a bug out bag and what to put in it. Bugging out is a regular and popular topic for both videos and podcasts alike. But the decision to bug out, to evacuate your home in the face of an impending disaster is far more nuanced. Such decisions shouldn’t be made quickly or lightly. Doing so can expose you to far greater risk than you’d have likely faced if you stayed home. In this post, I’m going to unpack some of the finer points to consider as it relates to evacuating as opposed to bugging out.

Let’s get the obvious out of the way first. The decision to evacuate is binary; you stay or go. That’s it. The hurricane is tracking north and west and expected to make landfall in your area. Additionally, emergency management officials have issued an evacuation order for your area. We can use this example for other disasters such as floods and wildfires. As a rule, emergency management officials are extremely reluctant to suggest an evacuation, let alone issue evacuation orders unless they have a high level of confidence that the event will impact a particular area.

Elected officials hate two things: being proven wrong and spending money. Evacuations are hideously expensive and dangerous. Schools and businesses shut down; police, fire and EMS personnel are mobilized. That manpower is neither cheap nor free. If they get it wrong, hundreds, potentially thousands of people needlessly run for the hills and the community has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars. I’m going to come back to running for the hills in a minute. Meanwhile, the business community grumbles about lost revenue. Given all of this, you can take some comfort in the fact that no one in City Hall sounds the alarm without considerable due diligence. You evacuate if ordered, or if the area in which you’re holed up is no longer safe. That’s it. If your situation doesn’t meet that criteria, stay put and ride it out.   

Hurricanes announce their presence with destructive winds, a terrifying rise in the sea water level known as a storm surge and epic amounts of rain. Hurricanes form over the course of days and take several more days to make landfall. While you’re monitoring the news in the lead up, you’re also evaluating your options and reviewing your plans and supplies. (Hint: this is the time top off, not go out and buy the first case of water or extra cans of food!) Earthquakes on the other hand, are characterized by a deep grinding and rumbling sound followed by the ground shaking so violently that bridges collapse, buildings are torn apart, and skyscrapers can topple. Earthquakes have a sudden onset, they occur quickly, with little to no warning. Tornado warnings generally allow for a three-minute warning before Mother Nature drops the hammer. 

The takeaway here is that some disasters allow for lead time to make last-minute preparations and, hopefully, GTHO. If you know that imminent death is barreling down upon you, the wisest course of action is to leave. Not every disaster announces itself so there’s that. I want to stop here for a minute to make a point.

In the lead up to evacuation, time is critical. Spending thirty minutes sifting through your family album or digging in drawers for the clothes you think you’ll need is a huge waste of time and a serious mistake. A better use of the time is to have bags already packed by the door or readily accessible in the garage. Having a plan allows you to act quickly, without the added stress of evaluating information, vetting the credibility of sources and weighing your options before deciding. Fear, anxiety and desperation are the enemies of effective decision-making. You’re assured to have a better outcome if you plan to evacuate, in advance, based upon accurate, credible information from emergency response officials and other reliable sources. To be clear, even though you make plans well in advance with solid information, things can and do often end badly. The one immutable guarantee is that at some point we will all die.

A minute ago, I mentioned running for the hills. Anyone and everyone who wants to be viewed as a credible prepper talks about this at length. There are likely hundreds of videos online addressing this topic. The preparedness industry sells a dizzying assortment of bug-out bags and spends millions of dollars marketing them. None of this is a bad thing, per se. Hollywood and pop culture perpetuate the myth of the well-resourced lone wolf going it alone against the zombie horde or gangs of marauders. The hero, at the first sign of trouble, strikes out alone blending into the shadows and reads the woods and charred cityscape like the back of his hand. This is the representation I have a big problem with.

The surest way to limit your chances of survival if not getting killed outright is to rush off, half-baked into the woods without supplies or a plan. In a bug out scenario, the chances are far greater that you’ll hurt your back carrying a pack that’s too heavy or, you slip, trip or fall, rolling your ankle or some other debilitating injury. Of course, the granddaddy of all outdoor misadventures is that you succumb to exposure.

We’re going to be here for a while so you might want to make yourself comfortable. First off, we’ve established the criteria you’d use to make the decision to stay or go. Again, if the situation doesn’t merit leaving the safety of your home, don’t do it. Second, and this is a huge one, you must have a place to go that you can reasonably and safely reach.

Ideally, your bug-out location is within two hours of your present location. If you’re walking, riding your bike, driving, taking public transportation or some combination of all the above out of the area, that’s a good plan. Note that I listed different options of getting out of the area. Relying solely on a single mode of transit and route to safety might not work. Using a map of your area, identify the primary, secondary and tertiary routes out of town. Depending upon where you live and the season, forest service and county roads can be used to reach safer areas, and some bike paths lead out of town. For that matter, if there are navigable waterways in your area and you’re skilled in operating watercraft, and it’s safe to do so, this might be a viable option.     

Hiding out in the mountains or traipsing through the woods is a dangerous and delusional fantasy. Only in the direst of circumstances should you willingly abandon your home- your comfortable and well-stocked safe space- to take your chances in the unknown. Consider this, someone likely owns the very woods you’re considering hiding out in. Trespassers are rarely welcome and least of all in a situation in which normal society is rapidly breaking down. You’re consuming resources they’re counting on for themselves and you’re a stranger. Unless you possess useful skills or resources or are a skilled negotiator, do your best to steer clear of private property to include vast stretches of woods along the interstates as well as seemingly abandoned buildings.

We’ve established that bugging out is your last option. We’ve also established that you must leave as early as possible and you must have a place to go. I’m going to be brutally honest. I’m of the opinion that bugging out is a young person’s game. The physical demands of carrying young children and a thirty pound pack is difficult to truly appreciate until you're deep in the weeds. An orderly evacuation is what grown folks do. Roughly forty-two percent of Americans are obese and one in four leads a sedentary lifestyle. Not every adult suffers from Couch Potato Syndrome, though it is prevalent! I could dive deeper into the data, but there’s a more effective method of driving this point home.

Take a long, critical look at yourself in the mirror. Then, take an equally long and critical look at your family. Based upon what you see, is it realistic to think that any of you can walk eleven miles? What about walking eleven miles carrying a pack weighing thirty pounds, can you do it? Does anyone in your household such as children or young adults live with physical or cognitive impairment? What about elderly, the morbidly obese, those with chronic or terminal illnesses? In normal times, moving these populations requires careful planning and specialized resources, resources that might not be available when planning to bug out.   

What about your pets? How will you take them with you? Have you planned to take them with you? I talk about pets in times of disaster at length in the post Comfort Creatures. Minimally, you'd want to have food, additional water, a leash, muzzle, if necessary and a transportation crate. Don't get forget medications and a favorite toy or blanket. A final word on pets. Those floppy ears and wet noses serve a higher purpose. Dogs and cats are able to hear, smell and detect things that we can't, such as changes in atmospheric pressure and sounds well below the threshold noticeable by humans. It's easy for them to become confused and agitated in the lead up to an earthquake, tornado or hurricane. They look to use for guidance and reassurance. Keep them close and keep them safe.

Another popular prepper myth is that bugging out is your final, last-ditch effort to save yourself as society collapses around you. I hope I’ve shed enough light on the topic to dispel this myth. Your emergency plans aren’t static, at least, they shouldn’t be. It’s important to identify what worked and what could have been done better to enhance your comfort and safety. If a few years have passed since you last dusted it off, it might be time for an update.

As I said, the decision to bug out should not be made lightly and without significant thought to the consequences.  Below are some Action Points to assist you in the planning phase as well as a chart to help you on your journey to becoming ready, resourceful and resilient.

Action Points

o   As a family, create a plan that addresses what you’d do in the face of the disasters most likely to occur where you live. The plan should speak to the following needs: food; water; communications; power; medical; assistive devices; hygiene and sanitation; security and comfort items.  

o   As a family, you should evaluate the pros and cons of evacuating. Be sure to allow for the physical capabilities of each family member, with emphasis placed upon age and health considerations. Your plan should feature multiple routes and modes of travel out of the area.  

o   Identify trusted friends and neighbors with whom to form a community. Minimally, you’d check on each other after a disaster or during a power outage.   

o   Get in shape. Make your physical fitness and level of capability a priority. Walking, biking and jogging are also great community building exercises!

o   Learn a new skill or hone an existing one! Sewing, gardening, canning, plumbing and carpentry are all excellent choices. You’re only limited by your imagination and the time you’re willing to invest.  

Below I've attached a matrix to help you decide whether to stay or go. Assign a single point to each criteria, for a total of 5 points. Ideally, you'll base your decision on the criteria with the highest score. In the end, you must make the decision in the best interests of you and your family.

Bug In vs. Bug Out Matrix

Criteria	Yes	No	Stay
Current Evacuation Order
Home in Imminent Danger
Physically Capable of Distance Walking
Access to Reliable Transportation
Stocked Bug Out Location